Resilience- Part 3- Resource Resilience

on November 2, 2012 at 2:38 am
Posted In: Gardening, Prepping

Resilience- Part 3- Resource Resilience

Resilience is an essential aspect of preparedness. In this series of posts, we are discussing three different layers of resilience. We have covered  personal resilience, which is your  mental and physical ability to cope with adverse circumstances. If you didn’t get a chance to read it, here is the link to Personal Resilience. There is also Financial Resilience, which we covered previously. Finally in this post, we are talking about basic resource resilience. This envelopes all of your basic resources such as food, shelter, and water.

The first priority is water. You can go several weeks with out food, but most people will only survive 3 days with out water, and they won’t be 3 very good days. you can store water, but it is heavy and takes up a lot of space. Think about alternative sources of water where you live that you could access  if your current water supply was interrupted due to a terrorist attack or natural disaster. One great way to capture water is to install a water catch. Here is a recent post on installing a water catch. We were able to make the one in the photo for less than $100. Any untreated water should be purified using something like a Katadyn water filter. The Katadyn Hiker Pro will filter 200 gallons and is available on the Amazon “I Recommend ” widget to the right. It  makes a great addition to your Bug Out Bag.Water can also be treated with household bleach. Use 8 drops per gallon or 16 drops per gallon if the water is cloudy. Boiling water will also kill any harmful bacteria.

Next is shelter. Most people have a place to live. The question is how resilient is it? If you are renting, how much of your income does rent consume? You can be more resilient by finding more modest rent when your current lease is up. If you were to lose your job and had to take one that paid less, you will recover faster if your rent is less. The same principle applies when purchasing a home. Try to keep the mortgage manageable and look for a neighborhood that is not ran by an association that tells you what types of trees and landscape you have to have. The further you are from a population center, the better off you will be in a social breakdown scenario. You may not be able to move to the country because of your line of employment at the present time, but perhaps you can think about saving for a bug out location. If this is not going to be feasible for a while, make your present shelter as resilient as possible.

There are some simple ways you can increase your resource resilience by building up stored food. To create a quick cheap store of long term food, you can fill a couple of 5 gallon buckets with dried beans and white rice. Beans are around $1 per pound and we can occasionally catch 20lb bags of white rice on sale for around $7.  We can fit 20lb of rice and 10lbs of dried beans in a 5 gallon bucket. This is not going to give you the variety of food you are used to but one bucket contains 40,000 calories. That is 2,000 calories a day for 2 people for 10 days. You can ensure maximum storage time and minimize pests by lining your bucket with a Mylar liner and adding an oxygen absorber, both are sold at the Amazon “I Recommend” widget at the right of this post. They are 10 of each for $26 and they ship free. You can seal the Mylar with a household iron. White rice can store up to 20 years and dried beans can store for 8 if kept  sealed in Mylar and stored in a cool area. So $7 for rice, $10 for beans and $2.60 for a liner and oxygen absorber totals to $19.60 if you can find a 5 gallon bucket laying around for free. 3 of those will cost less than $60 but will provide you with enough stored food to keep you going for 30 days.

Once you have 30 days of rice and beans, you can start buying a little extra each time you go to the grocery. Buy the thing you eat everyday. try to use coupons on “buy one get one ” sales to make the second item nearly free. You can do this with toilet paper, soap, and hygiene items as well as food. Check out our Coupon Corner that Mrs. Recon has put together. She works miracles with a very small weekly grocery budget by using coupons.

If you own your home, you can build resilience by gardening. While you may never be able to produce 100% of your own food on a small lot, growing a few fresh vegetables will greatly add tot the variety of foods that will be available to you in a long term emergency situation. Grow what you can in the space you have. Salads, greens, peppers, green beans, tomatoes, and herbs grow well in my area. We also replant the tops of our pineapples. They will produce a new pineapple each year.

     resilience     pepper     basil    

As we mentioned in “Personal Resilience”, gardening will increase your resilience in all three areas as you will get a little exercise while doing it, you will have fresh vegetables with out adding tot the grocery bill, and you will be able to produce your own food in a collapse scenario. You can build your own garden beds and produce your own compost by building a compost bin with reclaimed wood that can be found in bulk trash.

What else can you produce on your small plot of land? What fruit or nut trees grow well in your area? Two years ago, a co-worker gave me a great avocado. I planted the pit and now have a great little tree growing. It will be a few years before we get an avocado, but the process is started. As it was a local avocado, I don’t have to worry about genetic modifications as I would have had it came from the store.

avocado

Last year, my next door neighbor gave us a mango sapling from his tree. It is doing well also. If you have empty space, why not grow something that will provide food instead of just suck up water and fertilizer. This brings up another aspect of resiliency. Having good relationships with your neighbors is a plus. In good times and bad, it is good to have and to be a good neighbor.  Our neighbors are great, we watch out for one another property and always say “hi” to one another. In this age of social media and business, normal neighborly conversations are scarce. You may have to be the one to initiate a conversation. Christmas is a great time to bake a few extra cookies and introduce yourself to your neighbors if you have never done so. This is a small investment that will pay great dividends.

tree

Most of the things that we have mentioned will cost you very little to implement. Resilience is a way of life. It is not something you do once and forget about. You can take steps toward building a resilient lifestyle each day. In doing so, you will insure a better future regardless of what tomorrow may bring. To borrow a phrase from Jack Spirko of The Survival Podcast: “you will have a better life if times get tough or even if they don’t”.

Happy Prepping!

1 Comment

Hurricane Sandy

on October 31, 2012 at 4:13 am
Posted In: Prepping

Hurricane Sandy

First, let’s remember to pray for those who have been affected by Hurricane Sandy.If you have the means to help, Samaritans Purse has been involved in disaster relief for several years and maintains one of the lowest percentages of overhead costs of any relief organization. Samaritan’s Purse is led by Franklin Graham, the son of the great evangelist, Billy Graham. They were here in South Florida shortly after Hurricane Wilma passed through a few years ago. They were also one of the first relief agencies to provide help in Joplin, Missouri after the tornadoes and in  New Orleans after Katrina. They have already mobilized three relief units that left North Carolina on Tuesday . To donate, volunteer, or read more you can go to their website at Samaritan’s Purse.org.

Fires destroyed 80 homes in NY.

Unless you have been under a rock, you have seen the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy. At the time of this writing, the death toll was 55 lives lost. Hurricane Sandy brought massive property damage from flooding, high winds and more than 80 homes were lost from fires started by downed power lines. 8 million people or 2.5% of the population of America are without power.

NYC is dark without electricity.

Here are a few lessons we can take away even at the early stages of the aftermath. We are seeing first responders that are having to risk there lives to rescue people who did not evacuate when they were told. If you are told to evacuate and you chose not to, you are putting your own life at risk as well as the lives of those who have to attempt a rescue. It is selfish and irresponsible. Many people claim to not have the funds to evacuate. That is why Prepper Recon.com recommends having $1,ooo emergency fund as your first step in prepping. That is enough to get a ticket out of town and a cheap motel and meals for a few days.

The last minute is the worst time to become a prepper.

Most people didn’t even have the minimum 3 days of food and water recommended by FEMA. 3 days is far too little. 1 month of food and water is a good starting point. As millions of people tried to prepare for Hurricane Sandy, we got a chance to see how “Just In Time” inventory systems fail at periods of abnormal demand. In many areas, it will be more than a week before shelves are restocked. I hope we don’t see the types of chaos that we saw post Katrina. It is too early to tell.

Hurricane Sandy

Shelves were stripped the day before Hurricane Sandy.

Perhaps Hurricane Sandy will wake up more people to be better prepared in the future. If you have decided to get more serious about prepping  and would like to know how to get started, read our 7 Step Preparedness Plan. It will help you to build a foundation in readiness.

Have a blessed day and happy prepping!

1 Comment

Jim Rogers Sounds Alarm On US Treasuries

on October 29, 2012 at 3:21 am
Posted In: Economy

Jim Rogers Sounds Alarm On US Treasuries

jim rogers

In this interview with Capitol Account, Jim Rogers sounds the alarm on US Treasuries. Jim rogers points out that the US is the biggest debtor nation in the history of the world. Jim Rogers has been a very successful investor by spotting market trends. He has recommended purchasing hard assets and particularly farmland and timberland for the past several months.

At Prepper Recon, we agree with Jim Rogers and also believe that US Treasuries are in a bubble due to their real negative yield. The nominal yield on 30 year Treasuries are around 3% at the time of writing and the interest rate is closer to 6% after we strip away all of the government manipulation and stimulus money according to Shadowstats.com. That leaves the real yield of a 30 year Treasury at -2.5%. The bond market will not put up with this for long. They have been willing to accept the negative real yield because the dollar has had such an outstanding reputation of being a safe haven asset, but those days are drawing to a close. Once the confidence in the dollar cracks, the bond bubble will deflate rapidly. Those who are positioned to take advantage of this event will profit greatly. There are several inverse Treasury ETFs that can allow an investor to take advantage of the popping of the treasury bubble. Before deciding to use any investment vehicles, I recommend reading up on how they work as it is beyond the scope of this article. TYNS is a non-leveraged inverse or short ETF of 7 to 10 yr US Treasuries. TYBS is a non-leveraged inverse or short ETF of 20- 30 yr Treasuries. They are  designed to gain value at the same rate Treasuries of the same maturity lose value. 3x leveraged short ETFs include TYO for 7 to 10 yr and TMV for 20 to 30 yr Treasuries. They are  designed to gain value at 3 times the rate Treasuries of the same maturity lose value. Of course the opposite is also true. They can also lose value at 3 times the rate that Treasuries gain value. Investing is inherently risky by nature. Leveraged funds are even more risky. Be sure you understand them before investing.

As a disclaimer, I am not a financial adviser although I do hold a degree in Accounting and am currently studying for a degree in Finance. We do not hold any of the ETFs mentioned but do plan to purchase them once we see the bond market begin to show signs of popping. That could be next week, next year or ten years from now. I have been amazed at the willingness of the bond market to continue to accept negative yields from a borrower like the US who could never possibly repay all of her debt. While I do not recommend investment vehicles because every investor’s circumstance is different, I will let you know when we begin to step into the short Treasury funds that I mentioned.

Happy Prepping!

 

Comments Off on Jim Rogers Sounds Alarm On US Treasuries

Sunday Prepper Bible Study- Real Refuge

on October 28, 2012 at 3:46 am
Posted In: Bible

Sunday Prepper Bible Study- Real Refuge

refuge

Psalms 91

Whoever dwells in the shelter of the Most High
will rest in the shadow of the Almighty.
2 I will say of the Lord, “He is my refuge and my fortress,
my God, in whom I trust.”

3 Surely he will save you
from the fowler’s snare
and from the deadly pestilence.
4 He will cover you with his feathers,
and under his wings you will find refuge;
his faithfulness will be your shield and rampart.
5 You will not fear the terror of night,
nor the arrow that flies by day,
6 nor the pestilence that stalks in the darkness,
nor the plague that destroys at midday.
7 A thousand may fall at your side,
ten thousand at your right hand,
but it will not come near you.
8 You will only observe with your eyes
and see the punishment of the wicked.

9 If you say, “The Lord is my refuge,”
and you make the Most High your dwelling,
10 no harm will overtake you,
no disaster will come near your tent.
11 For he will command his angels concerning you
to guard you in all your ways;
12 they will lift you up in their hands,
so that you will not strike your foot against a stone.
13 You will tread on the lion and the cobra;
you will trample the great lion and the serpent.

14 “Because he loves me,” says the Lord, “I will rescue him;
I will protect him, for he acknowledges my name.
15 He will call on me, and I will answer him;
I will be with him in trouble,
I will deliver him and honor him.
16 With long life I will satisfy him
and show him my salvation.”

Like many preppers, we are saving money for a bug out location. We see our society moving further and further away from God. As it does so, it becomes more corrupt and more evil. Our cities are  becoming less able to cope with the increase in crime and violence. I pray often for God to guide my decisions and to open the right doors at the right time. Besides prayer, I look for guidance from him through the Bible. There are several scriptures that I believe confirm that we are in for a difficult future in America. The most obvious is Deuteronomy 28. Take time to read it this week. I will be posting a study on it in the near future.

I think God’s word urges us to be prudent and to provide for the safety and security of our families. This is the reason I think it is prudent to save up for a retreat.  At the same time, I know the Bible tells us we can trust God to provide for our safety. It is impossible for us to live lives that are completely free of any threat. We will never be able to prep to the point of immunity to all disasters. That is why we do our best and trust God for the rest.  Psalms 91 says “I will say of the Lord, “He is my refuge and my fortress, my God, in whom I trust.”’ God is the ultimate refuge that is always there for us.

Some preppers find themselves getting anxious about the future. The Bible gives them the remedy for that anxiety in Psalms 91. Verse 1 predicates peace with the requirement of dwelling in the shelter of the Most High. Those who have the peace to rest in the shadow of the Almighty, are dwelling in the shelter of the Most High. One definition of “dwell” is to live as a resident, the other definition is to fasten one’s attention. If you are constantly dwelling on the problems that may come in the future, you may find you don’t have much peace. Dedicating some part of each day to dwell on the Bible will give you enormous peace. I start every morning with a chapter or two of the Bible and usually listen to pastor Chuck Smith as I am falling asleep at night. Pastor Chuck’s teachings of the entire Bible are available to download free in mp3 format at Calvary Chapel Costa Mesa’s  website, The Word For Today.com

Have a blessed day, thanks for reading and happy prepping!

Comments Off on Sunday Prepper Bible Study- Real Refuge

Obama Care and the Coming Unemployment Crisis

on October 26, 2012 at 2:31 am
Posted In: Economy, Potential Threats

Obama Care and the Coming Unemployment Crisis

obama care

This post is a supplemental post to our previous post Financial Collapse – Threat Assessment Part 3: Obama Care. Please take time to read it if you have not  already done so. We are going to look a little closer at the numbers and how decisions by major  restaurant chains will affect unemployment and the broader economy in the future.

In our previous Obama Care post, we spoke of the decision by Darden Restaurants to cut most full time positions to 28 hours per week maximum. As it now stands, the provision in Obama Care that will force employers to provide health care for employees only applies to employees who work an average of 30 hours or more. This part of Obama Care goes into effect in 2014 and will be mandatory for all businesses with 50 of more employees.

The decision by Darden which includes several restaurant chains like Olive Garden, Red Lobster, Bahama Breeze, Capitol Grille and Longhorn Steak House is out more than a year in advance of the Obama Care provision. It is also being considered by White Castle, a fast food restaurant chain. I expect several other restaurants to follow Darden’s lead.  Not only restaurants, it seems logical to think department stores like Target and Wal-Mart as well as most large hotel chains will look at similar cost saving moves.

Let’s look at the numbers.

Part of the sorcery in employment numbers can be found in the definitions. When you see employment number released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the first Friday of every month, this number is the U3 number.  U3 includes people who are completely unemployed and are still looking for work. Once people give up looking for work, they become “discouraged workers”. At this point they fall into the U4 and above categories for one year. After one year of not looking for work, they become “marginally attached to the labor force” and are then only included in the U5 and U6 numbers. U6, our final category includes everyone in the previous categories plus those who are working part time because they cannot find full time work. This number is probably the best indicator of the state of the economy. Each consecutive number gets lager as it includes a broader definition of unemployed. You can view all of the U1 to U6 numbers and the definitions on the BLS website.

Currently, the U3 number is 7.8%. That number does not look quite as scary as the U6 number which is 14.7%. Remember, 70% of our GDP is consumer spending. If we are honest with ourselves and admit unemployment is 14.7%, fear and panic will cause people to cut their spending. This will trigger a deeper recession than what we are currently experiencing. By reporting the U3 number instead, the sheeple get their monthly dose of hopium to make them feel better. This false sense of security facilitates the can kicking and delays our day of reckoning.

Let’s look at the following chart from the BLS to estimate the impact of Obama Care on employment numbers if we only count the food service industry.

obama care

As we can see, the food service industry accounts for about 9% of total employment. The total US labor force is approximately 155 million workers. That comes out to 13.95 million service industry jobs. We’ll call it 14 million to make the math quicker. If all of these jobs went from 40 hours a week to 28 hours a week to avoid the Obama Care employer mandate, that is a total loss of 12 hours per job. Ironically, this will make 168 million available hours for new part time jobs. At 28 hours, that is a total of 6 million new jobs. That will reduce the U3 unemployment number by nearly 4%. All else being equal the reported number would be 3.8%. Obama would be heralded by the liberal media as a messiah like never before. The rest of the people in touch with reality would realize that the U6 number grew by the same percent. It would skyrocket to 18.7%. The 14 million who lost the 12 hours per week coupled with those 6 million who took the new 28 hour positions will barely scrape by. Nearly all of the total 20 million of these two groups will depend on the government to supply their health care due to no fault of their own. Add these  to the masses that are already dependent on the government and we will soon see how fast a socialist government  can run up debt and self destruct.

If other industries pick up on this idea to avoid Obama Care, the results will be much worse. This is a best case scenario. The worst case scenario has no limits.This election is about defeating Obama Care and hopefully buying ourselves a few more years to wake up more of our fellow Americans. If we don’t vote for Romney, the collapse will be here sooner than many of us will be able to prepare for. Even if you are hunkered down and ready for TEOTWAWKI, every day there are new brothers and sisters waking up and joining the prepper movement. Think of them when you cast your vote. A few more years can make a huge differences in the amount of preppers who survive to help us rebuild. Dr Paul is retiring this year, but his ideas are not. If you have not read ” The Revolution” by Ron Paul, I encourage you to pick up a copy and pass it on when you are done. If we can bite the bullet and choose the lesser of two evils this time around, perhaps we will have a better choice in 2016.

Happy Prepping!

 

 

 

 

 

1 Comment

Resilience- Part 2- Financial Resilience

on October 24, 2012 at 2:44 am
Posted In: Prepping

Resilience- Part 2- Financial Resilience

 

Resilience: an ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change.

Resilience is an essential aspect of preparedness. In this series of posts, we will discuss three different layers of resilience. We have covered  personal resilience, which is your  mental and physical ability to cope with adverse circumstances. If you didn’t get a chance to read it, here is the link to Personal Resilience. There is also financial resilience, which we cover in this post. Finally there is basic resource resilience. This envelopes all of your basic resources such as food, shelter, and water.

The foundation of financial resilience is a budget. It is nothing to be afraid of, it is simply any means you would like to use to track how much money is coming in and how much is going out. Once you know that, you can figure out your priorities and make adjustments. First, list all of your bills and grocery spending for the month. These items are your non-discretionary spending. Then list all of your shopping and entertainment spending. Most of this is discretionary spending and this is usually the easiest place to find ways to cut spending.

Now, let’s set some savings goals. Do you want to buy a house or pay off your mortgage early? Are you saving for retirement? There are only two other options to planning for retirement. One is working until you die and the other is dying early. We have some links to some very good budgeting forms on our Economy and Finance links. Dave Ramsey has an online budgeting form as well as free printable budget forms to get you started.

Once you get a budget going, you can start to look at ways to cut spending and increase savings.  Let’s say you can cut your spending by 20%. That 20% can go directly into savings. This builds financial resilience into your budget. The money saved is there to bail you out of unforeseen events without taking on more debt. You will also grow accustomed to living on 20% less. If your income is cut for any reason, the impact to your standard of living will be less. If you took a 20% pay cut due to cuts at your job, you may no longer be able to save the 20% you were saving before, but you would not have to cut your standard of living. You will still be living within your means because you had voluntarily cut that spending from you budget  previous to the pay cut.

One big budget buster is entertainment. Cable and satellite TV companies are always trying to get you to upgrade to a more expensive package.  How much could you save by getting the minimum package? Groceries are another budget buster. Stocking up when items are on sale is a great way to build resilience. You can also put coupons on the sale items to save even more. You will spend less and build a stockpile for emergencies. Our Coupon Corner has great tips on couponing as well as links to several coupon sites.

Our  nation’s biggest threats are financial, so financial resilience is the best way to prepare yourself and you family. Living below your means will actually increase the quality of life even if you reduce your standard of living. You will  have more peace and be better prepared for economic crisis on a personal or global level. If you have not read our 7 Step Preparedness Plan, I encourage you to do so. You will find much more information on financial resilience in step 1 “Budget” and step  6 “Bonds”.

Happy Prepping!

 

2 Comments

New James Wesley Rawles Interview

on October 22, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Posted In: Prepping

New James Wesley Rawles Interview

I know we just had an interview posted with James Wesley Rawles, but this one is very informative. His new book, Founders, was released on September 25th and he has come out of hibernation to talk about it. The book  chronicles the lives of several different  groups and individuals who endure the coming economic crash. I am a big fan of the books and always interested to hear what James Wesley Rawles has to say. It may be a year or so before he reemerges on the interview circuit, so let’s learn what we can from one of the most respected preppers around.

James Wesley Rawles is a former army intelligence officer as well as an accomplished author. He has written How to Survive The End of The World as We Know It, which is exactly what it sounds like. In addition to Founders, he has also written 2 other fiction books on the coming collapse; Patriots  and  Survivors.  James Wesley Rawles is also the creator of Survival Blog.com.

In this interview from Time Monk Radio, Rawles talks about the potential threats to our society and the possibility of a total collapse. He reminds us of the complete dependance on the grid and public water in major metropolitan areas. He points out that third world countries are much more resilient as they have to survive with much less assistance from the grid.Rawles suggests that a total collapse could cause a massive die of that could take out between 40% and 90% of the population.

He speaks briefly about the amount of people who are dependent on antidepressants and the hard withdraw they will go through in a collapse where their medication may not be readily available.

We have links to 2 of  James Wesley Rawles books from Amazon on the right side bar of this page, including Founders, which was just released on September 25th. If you are new to prepping of new to Prepper Recon.com, please read our 7 Step Preparedness Plan to get ready for the tough times ahead.

Happy Prepping!

4 Comments

Sunday Prepper Bible Study- Proverbs 22:3

on October 21, 2012 at 4:05 am
Posted In: Bible, Prepping

Sunday Prepper Bible Study- Proverbs 22:3

Proverbs 22:3 says:  “A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.” This proverb is a favorite Bible verse of many preppers as it envelopes the  prepper mentality. I believe God has blessed us with the ability to think. With that blessing comes a responsibility. That responsibility is to assess our environment and take the appropriate actions to make the most with the circumstances we have been given. That is all that can be expected of anyone.

Bible

 

The Bible says the prudent man sees danger. To see danger we expect that the prudent man must be on watch at all times. He is not overly consumed with football or Keeping Up With the Kardashians. He is paying attention to  his economic environment and his political environment so he can make the most informed decisions for his family’s well being.

The Bible goes on to say he takes refuge after he sees the danger. Once you have figured out that there is a threat, some action steps are required of you. If there is a tornado warning, you need to find shelter, if it is an economic event, you need to cut spending and start saving. If you see the threat of a breakdown in society or simply an uptick in crime, you need to take steps to defend your family from harm.

As with many verses in Proverbs, the wisdom of the prudent is contrasted with the stupidity of the fool. The proverb says “the simple keep going and suffer for it.” I think we can classify the simple into two different groups. Those that see the danger and those who don’t. I am appalled at the number of people I have contact with that actually see the threats that our economy is facing, yet choose to do nothing. They seem to know that a day of reckoning is coming, yet go on spending and living it up. Their priorities are new flat screen TVs, new cars and new i Phones rather than paying down debt, security and food storage. The just keep going and as The Bible says, they will suffer for it.

The second group seems oblivious to the problems. They pay very little attention to their environment and live in a fantasy land. These are the people who can’t tell you the difference in GDP and National Debt. They don’t know who their Congressman is nor do they know why  the Revolutionary War was fought. But, they can tell you who was drafted to what team last season and who won American Idol 2 years ago.

It is our job to try to wake them from their sleep. Give them some facts and figures when you talk to them. Try to get them thinking. Shows like Revolution and Doomsday Preppers may have little practical use, but they can be conversation starters about preparedness.  The more prepared people are, the easier it will be on everyone.

If you are new to prepping or would like to learn more about how to prepare for tomorrow, please read our 7 Step Preparedness Plan. Come back every Sunday for a new Prepper Bible Study! The most important prep of all is knowing GOD. Jesus said “what does it profit a man if he gains the whole world yet loses his own soul?” Prepper interpretation: What good will it do you to survive the coming economic collapse, nuclear war or even a zombie apocalypse if you don’t know you will go to heaven when you die. A recent study claims that 10 out of 10 people die! On that day we will meet our Maker. It only makes sense to be prepared for that day. Click here to learn more about knowing GOD.

Happy Prepping!

 

Comments Off on Sunday Prepper Bible Study- Proverbs 22:3