Prepper Finance and Obamanomics

on November 14, 2012 at 4:02 am
Posted In: Economy

Prepper Finance and Obamanomics

prepper

Now that we have seen the path that 51% of the American people have chosen, it is time to start drawing up our prepper game plan. Obama’s re-election was a surprise to me. I sincerely thought people had begun to wake up to the level of economic turmoil we are facing. I had not thought Romney’s plan to be anything like what we needed to get our country back on course. I had only thought if we could get him in the White House, simply avoiding Obamacare could have bought us a few more years. We would need drastic changes like those proposed by Ron Paul to have any real impact towards getting back to a sustainable path. The Republican primaries showed that we are nowhere near ready for that level of discipline.

Well, the damage is done and crying about it won’t help. As preppers, our duty is to prepare. This means we have to look at how Obamanomics are going to affect us over the next four years. We have strong trend lines in place and we know a good bit about his policies. That should allow us to have some accuracy in determining what may lay ahead.

Underemployment

It is my opinion, this will be the single most destructive element from this administration. Rather than rehash my thoughts on this, you can read my previous post on Obamacare and the coming unemployment crisis. In short, it will raise underemployment to levels never seen in this country. A prudent way for a prepper to get ready for this is to find other ways to produce income. What types of services could you preform or what types of products could you produce if you were laid off for an extended period of time? One prepper might be able to cut grass as a supplemental income, the other might sell homemade  jerky.

Inflation

The past four years have seen round after round of currency debasement aka quantitative easement. In the latest round of quantitative easement or QE, the Fed announced that they would be purchasing $40 billion dollars worth of mortgage backed securities per month. Ben Bernanke also stated that the MBS purchases would continue until there was significant improvement in the labor markets and overall economy. This move alone will create an additional $480 Billion a year in new money. This  new money will compete for the same goods and services in the economy and drive up all prices. We should expect the same policies to stay in place over the next four years. This will likely mean additional money printing that will continue to devalue the dollar. We will continue to watch for dips to add to our precious metals holdings. Like many preppers,  I have always used APMEX to purchase physical gold and silver. Another way to hedge yourself against inflation is to stockpile goods that you expect to rise in price due to inflation. If you expect coffee to rise 15% this year, why not buy a years worth of coffee the next time you have coupons for it and it is on sale? If you buy it now and it goes up 15%, you have effectively made a 15% profit on your coffee. The coupons and sale price will only add to your dividend. This same principle will apply to everything from Peanut butter to Ammo. This is one way that a prepper can profit and prep at the same time.

The Fiscal Cliff

We have basically the same make up in the Senate and the House as we did before the election with the Dems controlling the Senate and Republicans controlling the House. In the last debt ceiling debate, we saw squabbling into the 11th hour. The months of debates yielded the sequester which was viewed as a nuclear option that would force both parties to come together to avoid drastic cuts to each of their pet budgets. No agreement has been made and the sequester is set to take effect in January. The lack of cooperation bought us a credit downgrade from ratings agencies. We should expect more squabbling that will result in more downgrades. The last downgrade produced a lot of fear and triggered sharp sell-offs in all the markets, except, ironically, the US Treasury market. In the fear triggered by the downgrading of US debt, investors flocked to US debt. It is hard to say if that will happen again, but I do anticipate US Treasury bonds to sell off eventually as they have record low yields. If they sell off in a panic, it will be the end of the world as we know it. At some point, Investors will demand higher rates from US Treasuries, rates will shoot up and credit markets will raise rates that ruin our fragile economy.

I am planning to be extremely cautious about investing in equities, at least until after January. I am also keeping some powder dry for when the bond bubble pops. It could be next week, next year or 3 years from now, but I think it is inevitable. Inverse bond ETFs like TYNS and TYBS are funds that I am planning to use to protect my portfolio when it pops.

I hold a degree in Accounting and am pursuing a degree in Finance. I mention my investment strategies from time to time. However, I am not a financial adviser and I don’t make specific recommendations on these posts. Everyone’s situation is different and therefore everyone’s investment style is going to be different. Before investing in any instrument, you should fully understand the instrument and the risks associated with it. All investing is inherently risky and can lose money.

We  went into a lot of detail in our 7 Step Prepper Plan, especially in the area of prepper finance. Our nation’s lack of understanding of the impending economic doom we are facing was made evident in this past election. I was shocked by the result. I am more uneasy and less confident about this administration’s ability to kick the can much further. The can is getting to big to kick. Over the next month, we will be reviewing the 7 Step Prepper Plan and making some adjustments to reflect a heightened sense of urgency. I hope to re-post all 7 steps of our prepper plan in January and February.

Have a blessed day and happy prepping!

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Patriots- Book Review

on November 12, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Posted In: Book Review

Patriots-  a Novel of the Coming Collapse by James Wesley Rawles

James Wesley Rawles is a former Army Intelligence Officer as well as a popular survivalist author. His has written “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know it” which is a basic preparedness manual. He is also the author of Survivalblog.com which is loaded with incredible prepper information. He has just released his third book in the coming collapse series entitled “Founders“. The second was “Survivors”  and “Patriots‘ was the first. The coming collapse novel series are fictional accounts of life after the collapse. We will be reviewing the latest book “Founders” very soon, but I wanted to start with the first book.

“Patriots”  follows the lives of a survival group through the difficulties they face after the collapse of the financial system. The group members were convinced of the inevitability of the coming collapse and began to put away supplies to prepare for the eventual downfall. Most of the group members have been friends since college. They prepare by purchasing and fortifying a 40 acre rural retreat in Northern Idaho. One of the members has a wealth of knowledge in tactical skills and trains the group to operate like a military unit. This training pays off big time after the collapse. Rule of law breaks down and America becomes a war zone. Looters and criminals rise up as there is no formal law to control them. The group is forced to use their tactical training to defend their lives and their retreat on several occasions.

There is much more to the book than just shoot outs. “Patriots” does a fantastic job of getting into the minds of the characters and relaying the emotions they go through on a day to day basis. He walks us through their lives as they have medical issues and weddings and memorials. One of the couples in the group have a child. He describes the methods they use in delivering a baby at home. After a while, some resemblance  of normalcy rises from the ashes and trade and barter begin in a nearby town. They are able to start attending a small church and have an occasional barn dance.

“Patriots” looks at the causes of the collapse of the financial system and gives very believable account of how it will happen. It describes a complete breakdown in the value of the dollar. Nearly half of the population does not make it through the first few months. The die off is caused by starvation, lack of medical resources and violence. “Patriots”Is an excellent book to get the prepper juices flowing. More than its entertainment value, it describes in detail what you can do now to get ready for such a collapse. Read it the first time for fun, then read it again to see which ideas you can implement in you prepper plan.

James Rawles is a Christian author as well and you can rely on all of his books to be PG. They never have unnecessary graphic sex scenes, they never use GOD’s name in vain and they never have the F word.  I hope you get a chance to read “Patriots”.  It is available through Amazon on the link to the right of this blog.

Let us know what your favorite prepper fiction books are.

Have a blessed day and happy prepping!

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Sunday Prepper Bible Study- I Thessalonians 4:11-12

on November 11, 2012 at 4:59 am
Posted In: Bible

Sunday Prepper Bible Study- I Thessalonians 4:11-12

bible

” Work with your hands, just as we told you, so that your daily life may win the respect of outsiders and so that you will not be dependent on anybody.” I Thessalonians 4:11-12

This Bible verse encourages us to work hard with our hands. Our country grew strong through a strong work ethic. Unfortunately, many in our country have grown lazy and are satisfied with government handouts. This effect is largely due to our government getting involved in charity work. Our forefathers never intended the government to take over charity, which is the responsibility of the Church. The government robs the Church of the blessings that go along with charity. Then they rob taxpayers by taxing them to give the profits of the productive to the irresponsible. When government bureaucracy takes over, no discernment is made between the truly needy and the slothful that are just looking for a free lunch. When this is the Church’s role, they can counsel those in need and help them find a path to taking care of themselves when ever possible. They can also tell when people are looking for a hand out rather than a hand up. The Bible also says in II Thessalonians 3:10 ” If a man will not work, he shall not eat”. I believe that hunger is a great motivator. Perhaps we circumvent GOD’s lessons through government welfare programs.

Today’s Bible verse also talks about hard work as being something respectable. A generation ago, people would have been much more self conscious about having to accept help. In current times, there is an entire culture who seems proud of being able to work the system and avoid working.

In the present economy, I understand that many people have no choice but to accept what is available from the government. If you have worked hard all of your life, and now find yourself unemployed because of the economic downturn, you deserve whatever is available. You have been forced to pay into this system at gun point and that is your money they are giving you. If, however, that money had never been taken from you, it could have been saved and you would have no need of it. If you did exhaust those resources, your Church where you have tithed faithfully would be there to help you in your time of need.

Finally, our Bible verse for today says we should work hard so that we will not be dependent on anybody. The patriots that died for this country gave their lives to give us independence. It is sad to see how many of our countrymen have no respect for that independence and quickly trade it for dependence. Rather than being angry as this Robin-hood government takes from my pockets to enrich the lazy, I feel sorry for them as the lazy are slaves to a lifestyle that they will likely never escape. Until they can see the value of earning something for themselves, they will never value anything they get. It cost them nothing and it is worth nothing to them.

As our country continues to reward failure and punishes success through transfer payments, our debt will grow and the economic collapse will get closer. When there is nothing left to take and no one will lend more money to our bankrupt government, the gravy train will come to a halt. The streets will be filled with people screaming “I deserve it!” but there will be nothing left to give away. So stay diligent in your work and save what you can. Don’t get caught up in feeling like a sucker that is being taken advantage of. The Bible also says in Galatians 6:7 “GOD cannot be mocked, a man reaps what he sows”. His Word and His way will prevail. We will all reap what we sow, whether good or evil.

We hope you enjoyed this week’s Bible study. Have blessed week and happy prepping!

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Pellet Guns

on November 9, 2012 at 3:07 am
Posted In: Prepping

Pellet Guns

Pellet Guns are something often overlooked by preppers as a useful tool. In the prepping world, there is no end to the discussions on which battle rifles, handguns, and shotguns are the best. Not only are they covered ad nauseum on prepper posts, but guns also have their own world apart from the prepper community. They have their own blogs and websites, TV shows and clubs. This is as it should be. They have been part of our countries heritage since before the first shot fired at Lexington and Concord. The second amendment is what was added to our Constitution not to defend our homes from burglars, but our country from tyrants.

An often overlooked addition to the battle rifle, shotgun and handgun is the lowly pellet gun. I don’t recommend it for your go to gun if the SHTF, but your tool box contains a variety of hammers, screw drivers and saws, and so should your gun cabinet. A pellet gun has a couple of nice advantages. The universal advantage is the price of ammo. Range fees and ammunition costs can be prohibitively expensive. If you have a pellet gun, you can take it out in the yard a couple times a week. Always be sure of what is beyond your target and treat your pellet gun just as you would any other weapon. This can keep your trigger finger in shape and keep you from getting rusty. This doesn’t replace range time, but it will help your performance when you finally get to the range.

Another great advantage for us city folk is the lack of noise. This will allow us to get a little target time in the backyard when we can’t get to the range. The quietness of a pellet gun would also be a great asset in a bug in situation in the city. Most of us have some types of squirrels or birds in the backyard that could serve as a supplemental source of protein in a teotwawki situation. If you are stuck in such a situation, you may not want to broadcast to the world that you are taking game. You may end up with some uninvited dinner guests.

The other great aspect of a pellet gun is for young preppers. It is a great tool to teach gun safety with. My first weapon was a Daisy BB gun when I was 8. My father taught me the basics of gun safety with that gun and it has been with me ever since.  A good pellet gun like the Gammo Hornet in the picture is available from Amazon on the right hand side bar for under $100. It fires regular or  PBA ammo and will easily take small game like birds and squirrels.

pellets    

Be safe and have fun. Here are some free printable targets.

Have a blessed day and happy prepping!

 

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John Williams Gives Dire Warning

on November 7, 2012 at 4:10 am
Posted In: Economy, Potential Threats

John Williams of Shaddowstats.com

We post a lot of economic information on Prepper Recon.com. If you have little interest in economics, please at least try to watch the videos as understanding these principles are just as important to your ability to plan for and survive the coming crisis as any other aspect of prepping.

John Williams delivers a dire warning in this short 15 minute video. He talks about the threats of a loss of confidence in the US dollar that will likely cause a run on the dollar. As people seek to get out of dollar denominated assets like paper currency and US treasuries, commodities like oil, metals and food will be  subject to a hyperinflationary run. John Williams recommends purchasing gold and silver prior to  the beginning of such an event to hedge yourself . He also recommends purchasing the goods that are going up in price, which you know you will consume. He points out that this is a much better return than US Treasuries that have a real negative yield after subtracting inflation.

John Williams is an economist and creator of Shaddowstats.com. Shaddowstats.com seeks to give accurate measurements on economic statistics that are manipulated by government agencies. For example, the unemployment rate that is reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the first Friday of each month has very little to do with the amount of people who are not working because they have no job. When people who have quit looking for work because they have given up, people who have found some way to qualify for disability and those who took early retirement because they couldn’t find jobs are added in, the real unemployment number is around 23%. The sugar coated number given by the BLS is 7.8%. Similar methods are used when the government reports inflation. Government inflation numbers use “hedonics” which allow them to adjust costs down by saying that you derive more enjoyment from a more expensive product. Let’s say you paid $500 for a computer 5 years ago and a similar model is now $800. Since it is faster, it is worth more, therefore, there is no inflation. They also use substitution. This concept says since steak went from $3 a pound, to $9 around, you will substitute hotdogs for steak, therefore there is no inflation. The government number is manipulated to 2% inflation while Shaddowstats.com reports the real number to be closer to 6%.

This is seen as a necessary evil to the government as reporting the real numbers would likely trigger a panic. People would start hoarding food, buying gold and silver, planting gardens, stocking up on guns and ammo and everything else Prepper Recon recommends if they knew the truth. In this interview with USA Watchdog, John Williams says he expects the average person to start waking up to the real state of the economy despite the government’s best efforts to tell them everything is just rosy. He goes on to explain that the economy never really recovered. I know this is probably a shock to everyone reading who thought things had really gotten much better. As it turns out, the GDP as reported by the government is also manipulated. If you remove all of the stimulus from government borrowing and and Fed money printing AKA QE, GDP is much nearer to zero or a negative number than we have been led to believe.

I hope you enjoyed this post. Leave us some feedback and let us know what sources you use to find out the potential threats we are facing.

Have a blessed day and happy prepping!

 

 

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Hurricane Sandy Reveals Dependence of USA

on November 5, 2012 at 4:20 am
Posted In: Prepping

Hurricane Sandy Reveals Dependence of USA

sandy

This video from HLN on the aftermath of  Hurricane Sandy reveals the level of total dependence that has been fostered by our country. It is not fair to blame it on the government as we are the ones who have elected them. It is not something that has been forced upon us, but rather the path that has been chosen by the voting majority. How sad our forefathers would be to see such behavior. They fought and died to pass down independence to us. In our complacency, we have traded that independence for total dependance. We have thrown it out with yesterday’s trash, and with it went our true American spirit.

“When is the government coming?”

The patriots that fought and died to give us a limited government had looked to free us from such dependence. They prepared for inevitable hardships themselves. When burdens were too big for one person to handle, they came together as a community. The Church provided relief for those in need. They counseled the needy to determine who was truly incapable of taking care of themselves and who was just looking for a free lunch. Because of the lack of common sense and abundance of bureaucracy, the government is not able to discern between the destitute and the lazy. As such, we have created a welfare class that sees voting for the person who is offering the biggest hand out as their only job. They don’t look for another job, because that one pays very well.

The Hurricane Sandy victim in the video is the poster child of our dependence. Despite mandatory evacuation orders, she stayed. Despite several days of warnings prior to Hurricane Sandy making landfall, she did not provide for certain disaster by buying the necessary provisions recommended by the authorities. She ignored the very government whom she now expects to rain provisions upon her.

This is not the government’s job. We are primarily responsible for ourselves. When calamities come, it is up to the community to come together and lift each other up. When it is a major disaster like this one, relief agencies like Samaritan’s Purse are much more efficient than any government agency ever could be. Samaritan’s Purse had 3 relief teams on the road the morning after Hurricane Sandy struck. They came to our area after Hurricane Wilma. I volunteered with them for 2 weeks putting tarps on damaged roofs and clearing fallen trees. Because they rely on volunteer work, they are able to dedicate the majority of the donated funds to chainsaws, plywood and tarps. After a disaster, there are always a surplus of able bodied people who want to help. This is not possible with government. there is too much red tape. In fact, it was our city government that took 8 months to issue permits for our Church to begin demolition of the interior walls of buildings that had been destroyed by Hurricane Wilma. Wilma’s problems were exacerbated by the government. They were the problem, not the solution.

If you would like to donate funds or volunteer with  Samaritan’s Purse, you can contact them at Samaritan’s Purse.org. They have been providing assistance to victims of Hurricane Sandy since the first day after the storm. They have been providing an example of the community relying on each other rather than the government for years.

Happy Prepping!

 

 

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Sunday Prepper Bible Study- Proverbs 22:7

on November 4, 2012 at 5:30 am
Posted In: Bible

Sunday Prepper Bible Study- Proverbs 22:7

Bible

 

The Bible says in Proverbs 22:7 ” The borrower is slave to the lender.” It is a simple piece of wisdom, but it is so true. The first thing that comes to my mind from this Bible verse is the word “slave”. When I think of a slave, I think of someone who works hard for the gain of someone else. If a person is paying 18% on  their credit card, in a manor of speaking, they are working to enrich the lender. The second thing I think when I hear the word “slave” is a person who is not free. Any one who is bogged down by debt is not free to make financial decisions. They are forced to make payments on their debt and are not free to allocate that money to savings, down payment on a house,  furthering their education, or vacations. The antidote is as simple as living with in your means. This requires the discipline of having a budget. Some people think of a budget as being restrictive, but it actually will free you from debt and the higher cost of purchasing  because of interest. To learn more, read our post on Budgeting.

Getting on a budget may not be the most glamorous step in prepping, but it is the most essential step. With out a good budget, prepping can actually cause a personal crisis long before a global collapse ever occurs. Overspending on prepping and getting into credit card debt will do exactly what the Bible said. You will become a slave to the lender. The main idea in preparedness is being able to take care of yourself. If you create a financial catastrophe of your own, you will limit your ability to adapt to change.

We spend a lot of time on Prepper Recon talking about saving, investing and prepping on a budget. The Bible encourages us to be good stewards of what GOD has blessed us with. You can be prepared with out going into debt. One of the best tools to prepping on a budget is couponing. Mrs Recon has put together some great tips and a very comprehensive set of links on our Coupon Corner. Couponing will also allow you to get some items absolutely free.

Freedom from debt allows us to be free to give and be charitable. When you are a month behind on credit card  bills, it is not very likely that you will have anything to share with those in need. James 1:27  tells us to look after those who can not take care of themselves. If we are buried in debt, we are not free to be obedient to that Bible verse.

The Bible encourages us to be responsible with our money. Getting on a budget will take some effort, but the rewards are worth it. You will be more free to live a self sufficient life and be in a better position to help others.

Have a blessed week and happy prepping!

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Resilience- Part 3- Resource Resilience

on November 2, 2012 at 2:38 am
Posted In: Gardening, Prepping

Resilience- Part 3- Resource Resilience

Resilience is an essential aspect of preparedness. In this series of posts, we are discussing three different layers of resilience. We have covered  personal resilience, which is your  mental and physical ability to cope with adverse circumstances. If you didn’t get a chance to read it, here is the link to Personal Resilience. There is also Financial Resilience, which we covered previously. Finally in this post, we are talking about basic resource resilience. This envelopes all of your basic resources such as food, shelter, and water.

The first priority is water. You can go several weeks with out food, but most people will only survive 3 days with out water, and they won’t be 3 very good days. you can store water, but it is heavy and takes up a lot of space. Think about alternative sources of water where you live that you could access  if your current water supply was interrupted due to a terrorist attack or natural disaster. One great way to capture water is to install a water catch. Here is a recent post on installing a water catch. We were able to make the one in the photo for less than $100. Any untreated water should be purified using something like a Katadyn water filter. The Katadyn Hiker Pro will filter 200 gallons and is available on the Amazon “I Recommend ” widget to the right. It  makes a great addition to your Bug Out Bag.Water can also be treated with household bleach. Use 8 drops per gallon or 16 drops per gallon if the water is cloudy. Boiling water will also kill any harmful bacteria.

Next is shelter. Most people have a place to live. The question is how resilient is it? If you are renting, how much of your income does rent consume? You can be more resilient by finding more modest rent when your current lease is up. If you were to lose your job and had to take one that paid less, you will recover faster if your rent is less. The same principle applies when purchasing a home. Try to keep the mortgage manageable and look for a neighborhood that is not ran by an association that tells you what types of trees and landscape you have to have. The further you are from a population center, the better off you will be in a social breakdown scenario. You may not be able to move to the country because of your line of employment at the present time, but perhaps you can think about saving for a bug out location. If this is not going to be feasible for a while, make your present shelter as resilient as possible.

There are some simple ways you can increase your resource resilience by building up stored food. To create a quick cheap store of long term food, you can fill a couple of 5 gallon buckets with dried beans and white rice. Beans are around $1 per pound and we can occasionally catch 20lb bags of white rice on sale for around $7.  We can fit 20lb of rice and 10lbs of dried beans in a 5 gallon bucket. This is not going to give you the variety of food you are used to but one bucket contains 40,000 calories. That is 2,000 calories a day for 2 people for 10 days. You can ensure maximum storage time and minimize pests by lining your bucket with a Mylar liner and adding an oxygen absorber, both are sold at the Amazon “I Recommend” widget at the right of this post. They are 10 of each for $26 and they ship free. You can seal the Mylar with a household iron. White rice can store up to 20 years and dried beans can store for 8 if kept  sealed in Mylar and stored in a cool area. So $7 for rice, $10 for beans and $2.60 for a liner and oxygen absorber totals to $19.60 if you can find a 5 gallon bucket laying around for free. 3 of those will cost less than $60 but will provide you with enough stored food to keep you going for 30 days.

Once you have 30 days of rice and beans, you can start buying a little extra each time you go to the grocery. Buy the thing you eat everyday. try to use coupons on “buy one get one ” sales to make the second item nearly free. You can do this with toilet paper, soap, and hygiene items as well as food. Check out our Coupon Corner that Mrs. Recon has put together. She works miracles with a very small weekly grocery budget by using coupons.

If you own your home, you can build resilience by gardening. While you may never be able to produce 100% of your own food on a small lot, growing a few fresh vegetables will greatly add tot the variety of foods that will be available to you in a long term emergency situation. Grow what you can in the space you have. Salads, greens, peppers, green beans, tomatoes, and herbs grow well in my area. We also replant the tops of our pineapples. They will produce a new pineapple each year.

     resilience     pepper     basil    

As we mentioned in “Personal Resilience”, gardening will increase your resilience in all three areas as you will get a little exercise while doing it, you will have fresh vegetables with out adding tot the grocery bill, and you will be able to produce your own food in a collapse scenario. You can build your own garden beds and produce your own compost by building a compost bin with reclaimed wood that can be found in bulk trash.

What else can you produce on your small plot of land? What fruit or nut trees grow well in your area? Two years ago, a co-worker gave me a great avocado. I planted the pit and now have a great little tree growing. It will be a few years before we get an avocado, but the process is started. As it was a local avocado, I don’t have to worry about genetic modifications as I would have had it came from the store.

avocado

Last year, my next door neighbor gave us a mango sapling from his tree. It is doing well also. If you have empty space, why not grow something that will provide food instead of just suck up water and fertilizer. This brings up another aspect of resiliency. Having good relationships with your neighbors is a plus. In good times and bad, it is good to have and to be a good neighbor.  Our neighbors are great, we watch out for one another property and always say “hi” to one another. In this age of social media and business, normal neighborly conversations are scarce. You may have to be the one to initiate a conversation. Christmas is a great time to bake a few extra cookies and introduce yourself to your neighbors if you have never done so. This is a small investment that will pay great dividends.

tree

Most of the things that we have mentioned will cost you very little to implement. Resilience is a way of life. It is not something you do once and forget about. You can take steps toward building a resilient lifestyle each day. In doing so, you will insure a better future regardless of what tomorrow may bring. To borrow a phrase from Jack Spirko of The Survival Podcast: “you will have a better life if times get tough or even if they don’t”.

Happy Prepping!

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